Chance of Hearing a Song

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Chance of Hearing a Song

Post by rogerwimmer » Mon Jul 30, 2012 6:14 am

Doc: Greetings from the Pacific Time Zone. Is there a way to estimate my average listener's chances of hearing certain songs on my playlist? For instance, if I play a song 50 times per week, what is the chance my average listener will hear this song on any given day? What about over the course of a week? Also, same question, but for my P1's. I'd like to base the spins each of my categories gets partially on the odds of my audience's exposure to each.

I am assuming there must be some kind of equation that can help. I know what my weekly cume is, my AWTE (Average Weekly Time Exposed, aka TSL), etc. And if it matters, I am not referring to OES. I am familiar with that formula but I don't think it exactly answers what I am looking for.

Thanks for helping if you can. - Anonymous


Anon: Greeting to you too and on to your question . . .

Although you said that OES (Optimum Effective Scheduling) is not your answer, I think it is. What I would like you to do is read two articles and see if that clears it up for you. If not, write again and I’ll see what I can do.

First, read this answer on the Research Doctor Archive – scroll down to the question titled, “Music Rotation - The Art & Science of Spins,” near the bottom of the page.

Then, read this short article by Mike McVay – click here.

Do those articles answer your question? If you consider a song the same as a commercial spot, you can see that the approaches to determine exposure are the same.


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Roger Wimmer is owner of Wimmer Research and senior author of Mass Media Research: An Introduction, 10th Edition.

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